By HOL I mean something like inference rules of HOL Light with the 3 axioms of infinity, extensionality and choice ($\varepsilon$ operator).
By predicative dependent types, I am thinking of MLTT + W-types + infinitely many predicative universes, and MLTT + infinite hierarchy of universes with induction-recursion.
For a long time I thought that HOL is weaker than predicative dependent type theories, but now I am doubting this. It might have just been a mirage due to ease of use and expressiveness of abstractions. In HOL we use booleans in the type of equalities, $\alpha \: \rightarrow \: \alpha \: \rightarrow \: Bool$, which gives HOL a slightly impredicative flavour. On the other hand we use a universe in the type of equalities in predicative dependent types, $(\alpha : Set) \: \rightarrow \: \alpha \: \rightarrow \: \alpha \: \rightarrow Set$. What is the relationship? I believe this reduces to something like is the proof-theoretic ordinal of HOL known to be smaller or larger than that of MLTT.